A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. They writes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
