NFL Play-Off Picture: Key Deciders & Scenarios for the Final Week.
As we head into the last weekend of the NFL regular season, just two play-off spots are still up for grabs. Yet, a great deal more is on the line, such as the coveted #1 rankings in each conference and four divisional crowns.
The schedule makers have produced a dramatic finale, with the two remaining play-off positions on the line in a pair of head-to-head contests.
NFL Postseason Picture as of Week 18
AFC Standings
- Denver (13-3)
- New England (13-3)
- Jacksonville (12-4)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) / Baltimore (8-8)
- Houston (11-5)
- L.A. Chargers (11-5)
- Buffalo (11-5)
The victor of the Steelers-Ravens contest will secure the fourth seed and a home game in the wildcard round. Meanwhile, the Bills and Los Angeles are locked in as wildcard entrants.
The Texans require a victory coupled with a Jaguars loss to climb from the fifth seed to third. The Broncos will secure the top seed with a win, but a loss could open the door for the Patriots or the Jaguars to snatch it.
National Football Conference Rankings
- Seattle (13-3)
- Chicago Bears (11-5)
- Philadelphia (11-5)
- Carolina (8-8) / Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)
- San Francisco 49ers (12-4)
- L.A. Rams (11-5)
- Green Bay (9-6)
The South division is up for grabs by the victor of the Panthers-Buccaneers game, granting them the #4 position. Notably, the Panthers could still win the division even with a defeat, depending on other outcomes.
Green Bay are locked into the seventh seed. The marquee matchup, though, is the battle for the #1 seed in the NFC between the Seahawks and the 49ers, with a week off and home-field advantage hanging in the balance.
Understanding the NFL Play-Off Format
The #1 team in each conference receives a valuable first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the play-offs.
On Wildcard Weekend, the remaining six qualified teams face off: the #2 team plays the seventh, #3 plays #6, and #4 faces #5.
In the second round, the top seeds join the fray, facing the weakest surviving team. The conference championship games are then hosted by the highest seed, underscoring the critical importance of securing that #1 ranking.
Win or Go Home in the AFC North
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (01:20, Monday)
This bitter rivalry comes to a head in the final game of the NFL season. With the AFC North and a play-off berth at stake, this is a true elimination situation.
The Steelers have been up and down this season, while the Ravens struggled early but are still in the hunt. Key injuries could be decisive: The Steelers may be without key target DK Metcalf, while Baltimore's quarterback their MVP QB is questionable with a back injury.
Star rusher the powerful back could be the difference-maker for the Ravens in what promises to be a hard-hitting, defensive battle.
NFC West Showdown for the Top Seed
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (01:00, Sunday)
More than just the division title is at stake when Seattle travels to the 49ers. The victorious team claims the conference's #1 spot and the road to the championship game that comes with it.
This game pits an high-powered San Francisco attack against a stingy Seahawks defense. With QB Brock Purdy came back, the 49ers have been the league's top offense. On the other hand, the Seahawks' defense is rated among the best in the league.
Seattle QB Sam Darnold must avoid mistakes that have haunted him this year. The team that comes out on top gains a huge edge for the postseason journey.
NFC South: A Race to Stumble Over the Line
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (21:30 Saturday)
Neither team comes into this game with strong form. Tampa Bay have dropped seven of eight, while Carolina have squandered chances to clinch the division.
For Carolina it's straightforward: a victory gets them in. For Tampa Bay, the scenario is more complex. Even with a win, they need another result from the Atlanta-New Orleans game to claim the divisional championship.
Three-Way Fight for AFC Supremacy
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (18:00, Sunday)
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (21:25, Sunday)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos (21:25, Sunday)
The Denver Broncos control their destiny for the AFC's top seed. A victory over a L.A. Chargers team likely to rest starters gets it done.
If the Broncos lose, the door opens for the New England Patriots. A Patriots win combined with a Denver defeat would give the top seed to New England.
Jacksonville are the long shot. They need a win and defeats for both Denver and New England to achieve an improbable ascent to #1. More importantly, a Jacksonville defeat could allow them to be overtaken by the Houston Texans in the division standings.
Full Slate of Final Week Games
Saturday, 3 January
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (21:30)
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (01:00, Sunday)
Sunday, 4 January
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (18:00)
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals (18:00)
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (18:00)
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (18:00)
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (18:00)
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (18:00)
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (21:25)
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (21:25)
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (21:25)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos (21:25)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders (21:25)
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams (21:25)
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles (21:25)
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (01:20, Monday)
