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New Yorkers will discover who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who runs and defends the nation's largest city at a time when the former president has threatened to send military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has matched two distinctly opposing Democrats against each other. The contest has become an acrimonious showdown, laced with alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a platform of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by double-digits in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has trashed Mamdani's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, the independent was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an election that could be key to the path that the party, floundering in its response to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to Americans' anger at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to embrace at least some of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the Democratic ranks arguably not witnessed since the Vermont senator ran for president in 2016.

However, should Cuomo, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement the party's existing approach of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has angered the party base. A NYC rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's engaging content on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has drawn an force of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, the former governor, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes against him, the ex-leader has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate personally. He has called Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the national guard to the capital and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that is expected. A set of wealthy residents, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect the independent elected, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, stepped down from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Still, the candidate has faced difficulties in recent days, after video surfaced appearing to show him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in recent years. The progressive, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the actions of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd